Top Ten Things That Will Kill the CD
That was one of the topics discussed here at transmitCHINA, the thinktank music conference. We even went through an exercise to determine what industry/social/economic factors might lead to the end of manufacturing CDs and DVDs. That included:
(1) Environmental concerns. Pressures to reduce the use of plastic and the costs associated with the warehousing and transportation of CDs.
(2) The continuing decline of the bricks-and-motor record store. If there’s no one selling discs, what’s the point?
(3) The rise of streaming music services. If you can access music anytime you want from anywhere, why do you need a physical copy?
(4) Apple eventually buys the music industry. (Okay, so that probably won’t happen, but they do have the cash.)
(5) Google buys the music industry (That won’t happen, either. But in an alternative universe, it could.)
(6) Online retailers like Amazon abandon selling CDs to focus on their digital music store.
(7) The next generation of bands can’t afford to manufacture and sell CDs or just don’t see the point in doing it. They just offer MP3s and links to streams.
(8) Automobile manufacturers stop including CD players as standard equipment (or even options) in their cars. This is already happening and will only accelerate over the next couple of years.
(9) Audio component manufacturers will stop making CD players just like they stopped making VCRs. This includes computer makers who stop including optical drives in their machines (see Apple’s current generation of Air laptops).
(10) Manufacturing costs of CDs finally exceed that of the return on the finished product.
The fact that the CD is in decline isn’t up for debate. It’s just a matter of time before the format is relegated to the same level as vinyl–or worse: the 8-track.
Very interesting list.
I have a problem with #8 being a "cause" of the death of CD though. Seeing as just last year, you could still get a cassette deck for a car (granted it wasn't exactly common over the last decade), manufacturers are usually quite slow to remove a technology option. If anything, the last remnants of CDs will likely be in cars, while everyone else has moved on.
Personally, I think the reasons are 3, 6 and 2, in that order. Time will tell!