Who Will Win Tonight’s Polaris Music Prize?

Tonight is the annual highlight for everyone who likes to argue, debate, complain, feud, quarrel, quibble, squabble and kvetch about which piece of music is “best.”  Yes, it’s time for the Polaris Music Prize Gala.

The goal of Polaris is to name the best Canadian recording of the past year (well, those albums that came out between June 1, 2011 and May 31, 2012) regardless of genre, label affiliation or commercial success. But of course, subjectivity is a bitch.

Today, twelve people chosen from the 200+ Polaris jurors will be sequestered somewhere in Toronto to hash out the merits and failings of the ten artists on the Short List.  They will deliberate even as the ceremony gets underway.  Their verdict may not come until very late in the proceedings.

As a member of the giant jury pool, I’ve had a ringside seat to the debates in the online forum.  Perusing the Long List and the Short List, I’m on the same page as many of the people in the pool.  But all bets are off when it comes to the Grand Jury.  It’s Twelve Angry Men (er, People), the Musical Edition.  No matter what the outcome, there will be carping and complaining.  But that’s all part of the fun, isn’t it?

Since wagering on such contests isn’t allowed in Canada (damn, I wish we could place bets like the British do on the Mercury Prize), the best I can do at this point is handicap the contestants taking account the vibe I got from the forums and what we’ve learned from the psychology and behaviours that emerge in the jury room.

Cadence Weapon/Hop in Dirt City:  3/1

This has been a big forum favourite from the beginning with many jurors passionately on Cadence Weapon’s side.

Kathleen Edwards/Voyageur: 3/1

A possible dark horse.  Could Edwards benefit from a split vote between two favourites?  Might she end up as the album that splits through on a compromise?  Let’s not forget Karkwa’s win in 2010.  No one saw that coming.

Grimes/Visions: 3/1

Another early favourite in the forums although some dismiss this record as being insubstantial.  I, however, think it will be front-and-centre in the jury discussions.

Japandroids/Celebration Rock: 7/2

One of my personal picks.  Full disclosure:  I’ll be making an introductory speech about them tonight at the gala.  Unfortunately, they won’t be appearing at the event due to prior commitments.

Feist/Metals: 4/1

Another possible compromise candidate. Jury dynamics are unpredictable (cf. Final Fantasy)

Drake/Take Care: 5/1

The other no-show at the awards tonight.  Arcade Fire proved last year that the jury won’t necessarily snub an album just because it had the audacity to be commercially successful.

Fucked Up/David Comes to Life: 8/1

Although they’ve won a Polaris already, that doesn’t mean that they’re automatically out of the running. 

Handsome Furs/Sound Kapital: 10/1

Good effort, but not this year.

YAMANTAKA // SONIC TITAN/YT//ST: 10/1

Another very early favourite and one of my two picks.  There was plenty of early love for this record but lately some jurors have been using the word “gimmicky” in their assessment.  

Cold Specks/Predict a Grateful Explosion: 20/1

A fine record but not enough of a buzz or profile to sway enough people.  The competition is too stiff.

The broadcast starts tonight on CBC Radio 3 at 8pm ET.